Modeling MTG Combo Wins With Monte Carlo Simulations

Modeling MTG Combo Wins With Monte Carlo Simulations

What is a Monte Carlo Simulation?

Monte Carlo simulations are a powerful method for generating forecasts—predicted scenarios with associated probabilities. These simulations are widely used across various fields, from estimating constants like π and e to predicting weather patterns and modeling fission energy production. In fact, the Monte Carlo method was originally developed by John von Neumann and his colleagues at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project to simulate atomic collisions in fission reactions.

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Heliod 75

Heliod 75

Decklist on Moxfield

Introduction

This deck is a response to a Discord deck-building challenge I joined. It attempts to achieve a cEDH-viable Rule of Law style stax and tax deck that can hang at any table based on solid fundamentals rather than a blown-out mana base and artifacts.

The rules were simple: $75 budget, Commander-legal format, and the cost of the Commander is excluded from the budget.

This deck is optimized towards these rules to leverage the value of the Heliod // Ballista combo with multiple redundant combo pieces, efficient and effective stax, decent tutors, and a game plan built around staying protected while slowing everyone else down.

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projects

A few things I’ve been working on lately:

  • heliod 75, a low budget ($75), competitively-focused Heliod stax and tax list
  • vedh.xyz, A virtual boardstate tracker for web and mobile Commander games
  • choam, a zero-knowledge JWT authentication server
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title = “Guildmaster: Magic The Gathering pod ranking and game tracker” +++ date = “2022-04-11T17:51:17-07:00” author = “Dylan Lott” authorTwitter = “dylanlott” #do not include @ cover = "" tags = [“mtg”, “elo”] keywords = ["", “”] description = "" showFullContent = false readingTime = false hideComments = false +++

Guildmaster: MTG Pod ranking and game tracker

Code can be found here at

Elo scores

Elo scores are a measure of relative skill in zero sum games. Elo scores are maybe most popularly known from chess, where they are the de facto standard for measuring player ratings.

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